The Geopolitical Situation in Iran
To begin with, when one references the situation in Iran, it is a mandate that we first discuss the role of arguably one of the most influential nations on the planet which is the United States of America, and the role of European nations following that, the status of the Iranian Nuclear Program.
The United States of America has had relations with Iran from the last quarter of the elapsed century. However the United States’ true involvement in the region is said to be from the time of World War Two, that is, from the nineteen-forties. At the time they were close in relation, with Iran even being host to Roosevelt,Stalin and Churchill in 1943 at the Tehran Conference.
However the relationship severed after the CIA involvement in the coup of 1953, which resulted in the, then prime minister Mohammed Mossadegh,following that,by the Islamic Revolution of 1979, which led to a contravention in relations that is unfortunately yet to be repaired.
Now with regard to the current day situation, with the 11th Iranian parliamentary elections in February, domestic politics are set to discuss foreign policy related issues, due to the fact that Hassan Rouhani, the Supreme Leader of Iran and the Iranian Reform movement are facing harsh censure over the government by conservatives.
It could take quite a while for the US and Iran to cross their paths in a positive sense.
Subsequently, efforts by several world leaders to get the presidents of Iran and the United States together on the sidelines of the recent UN General Assembly session in New York, failed, and no such talks were able to take place.
At the same time, a large quantity of pro-Reform supporters are in favour of not taking part in said elections altogether; on the contrary, conservatives view voting as a religious duty that they must partake in. Indeed, strong conservative turnout is expected in order to pave the way for changing the political texture of Iran’s parliament, which would sideline even the idea of dialogue with the West yet further.
Trump’s decision to continue to pursue a “maximum pressure” policy with regard to the situation in Iran just proves to show his lack of regard to the US-Iran relations in the past, and his decision to opt out of the JCPOA, only deepened the lack of trust between the weary Tehran and the United States.
On 8 May 2018 Trump announced United States withdrawal from JCPOA. Following the U.S.’s withdrawal, the EU enacted an updated blocking statute on 7 August 2018 to nullify US sanctions on countries trading with Iran.
In November 2018 U.S. sanctions came back into effect intended to force Iran to dramatically alter its policies with regard for its support for militant groups in the region and its development of ballistic missiles.
In May 2019 the IAEA certified that Iran was abiding by the main terms of the deal, though questions were raised about how many advanced centrifuges Iran was allowed to have,as the value remained quite loosely defined in the deal.
On 1 July 2019 Iran announced that it had breached the limit set on its stockpile of low-enriched uranium,which the IAEA had confirmed. Shortly afterward Iran announced an increase in uranium enrichment beyond the agreed limit of the deal.
Foreign minister Javad Zarif tweeted that the measures Iran had taken to scale back its commitment to the nuclear deal were reversible if the European signatories to the pact fulfilled their obligations.
Given Iran’s current political atmosphere, even the most optimistic Reformists have accepted that their share in Iran’s next parliament will significantly decrease. The conservatives will not give up a single opportunity to attack Rouhani’s policies of negotiating with the West. Thus, it seems that the window of opportunity for talks between Iran and the White House has closed,until the next US presidential election that is.
Crimson Skies 